What are the most common misconceptions about EV betting?

Let’s discuss the most common misconceptions in Expected Value (EV) betting. If you want to make informed betting decisions and add long-term profit to your bankroll, adding +EV bets to your portfolio daily is essential.     However, many things need to be clarified about EV betting. Below, we’ll discuss different strategies and the most common misconceptions about EV betting. 

How do these misconceptions impact your betting strategy? 

You must calculate your EV bets correctly to avoid sports betting becoming very dangerous, with many losses over time.     When calculating EV, you’ll need to make sure that you calculate correctly and don’t overestimate your potential winnings. You also can’t underestimate risks. Most of all, you don’t want to scan past an EV opportunity and lose out on the chance of more profit.     The more +EV wagers, the more money you’ll make. In addition, a -400 bet isn’t bad if the value is there. As long as there are odds discrepancies between all other books, it’s an EV bet.     We’ll discuss that misconception along with the many others below.  

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List of the most common misconceptions 

Misconception 1: EV Betting Guarantees Short-Term Wins 

There is no guaranteed success short-term with +EV betting. When you bet +EV, you’re looking at expected profit. However, it’s not guaranteed profit. It could take a wide range of bets before you start to see profit betting +EV.     If you want to make a +EV bet, understand that you’ll have multiple ups and downs. The ones who take the bad with the good prevail and succeed the most over time.     Therefore, don’t be upset if you’re not seeing results immediately. As long as you’re making quality +EV bets, over time, you will find success.     Unless arbitrage betting, you will struggle to earn consistent day-to-day success in sports betting.  

Misconception 2: EV is Only About Mathematical Calculation 

You don’t need to calculate anything to add an EV bet. Sometimes, you can find a major descreening and know it’s a stale line compared to all other sportsbooks.     Using other sportsbooks for contextual information should also inform bettors about a potential +EV bet.     Of course, if you decide to calculate the bet, you’ll find it is +EV. It’ll just save you time. Lines typically move fast, especially if they’re +EV bets compared to other books. Therefore, you won’t want to waste too much time calculating an EV bet if you already know it is one. 

Misconception 3: All High Odds Have High EV 

A +200 bet isn’t always an EV bet. A -300 bet isn’t always an EV bet. No matter the odds, it’s not always an EV bet.     High odds show a low probability of a wager. Maybe there’s value in a model, but it’s not an EV bet unless the odds are better than the fair value price of the bet.     Remember that if both sides are -110 against the spread, the fair odds for that wager is +100. The sportsbooks are just taxing 10% to make their money. But once you know the fair odds, you can determine which bets are EV.     If you can find +105 instead of -110, it’s a +EV bet if the fair odds are +100. Betting EV is all about probability.  

Misconception 4: Negative EV Bets Should Always Be Avoided 

Many bettors don’t like to lay anything above -200 or -250. Recreational bettors think it’s not worth betting more to win less. However, if there’s value in a -200 wager, then you’ll want to grab it.     Same with a wager at -500. If the fair odds for a play is -650 and you can get -500, that’s a +EV wager. The probability of this wager increased on all other books except for the one you bet on. Now, you have a high EV% based on that bet, even at -500 odds.   

Misconception 5: EV Betting is Only for Professional Bettors 

You don’t need to be a professional sports bettor to EV bet. Anyone can do it. You’ll just want to follow the sharp money before the sportsbooks can adjust. If you do that, you’ll start raking in the cash like professional bettors.  

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Conclusion 

There are so many misconceptions about +EV betting. However, we hope we’ve clarified some of the most common misconceptions about this topic. Hopefully, with your new understanding of +EV betting, you’ll finally start to add some profit to your bankroll using this strategy.     If you stay consistent, you will see profit over time. However, it could take some bettors months before seeing legitimate progress. If you’re beating the closing line value, don’t sweat it. The success will come, and it’ll be sweet!